US Elections Outcomes -Some Implications

What Happened?

Joe Biden claims victory

Democrat Joe Biden has claimed victory in the Presidential election. However, counting in some close states is not complete and the Trump campaign has called for recounts or has launched legal action with respect to the conduct of the election in some states.

No ‘Blue wave’

Democratic Party hopes of a ‘Blue Wave’ – capturing all three arms of government – didn’t eventuate.

The polls were wrong (again)

Opinion polls indicating that Joe Biden had a large overall lead and a smaller but clear lead in most ‘battleground’ states were wrong. The election was much closer than expected, with Biden winning a narrower majority of the overall vote and Trump likely to win several of the battleground states.

Divided Government to continue

While some seats are still undecided, the Republicans appear to have retained control of the Senate and the Democrats the House of Representatives. Irrespective of the outcome of the Presidential election, this means – as was the case before the elections – no party will control all three arms of government. The implications discussed in this Note are based on the ‘most likely outcome’ below.

America remains a divided nation

Exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Education Pool and reported by the New York Times reveal that sharp divides remain in American society which are reflected in some dramatically different voting patterns between the supporters of the two Presidential candidates.

What does it mean for … Economic Policy?

What does this mean for … the US Economy?

What does this mean for … the US Society?

What does it mean for … Foreign Policy & Trade?

What does it mean for … Investors?